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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-24T17:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18651/-1
CME Note: Faintly visible as a partial halo SSW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May possibly be associated with a filament eruption visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-24T10:30Z, with rising field lines faintly visible in SDO AIA 171 around the same time, and coronal change across the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2021-12-23T21:15Z and 2021-12-24T10:55Z. | Arrival analysis details from Lan Jian: "Because the mag field rotations and enhanced magnetic field lasted a long time, from late Dec 27 to about Dec 28 16:00, I think there is a CME encounter starting with a shock at 8:35 on Dec 27. The aforementioned field rotation region corresponds to the magnetic obstacle. The CME is overlapping with a stream interaction region (consistent with the ENLIL solar wind run at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction). I would consider this as a CME+SIR hybrid/merged structure."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-27T08:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-28T04:05Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -26580.35 hour(s)
Difference: -19.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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